Smartwatch report forecasts that Apple Watch will represent 40% of $350+ watch category by 2020

A Business Insider report on the smartwatch market is forecasting that the Apple Watch will by 2020account for around 40% of sales in the luxury watch market, which it defines as watches costing atleast $350.

As evidence for this, it cites a consumer survey showing growing interest in the Apple Watch amongowners of traditional watches, 27% of those who already wear a watch saying that the addedfunctionality of Apple’s wearable appeals to them. The report also notes a trend away from simplerfitness bands toward full smartwatches …The report says that fitness bands have seen their share of thewearables market fall from 53% in 2014 to an estimated 48% thisyear, with a further slide to 42% predicted by 2020. Among thoseplanning to buy a smartwatch, three times as many favor an AppleWatch over an Android-based competitor.

As always with reports aiming to predict the future of tech products,a lot of assumptions go into them that may or may not turn out tobe correct, so they are best viewed as informed opinion.

An earlier report suggests that the Apple Watch may have a difficulttime in the shorter term, KGI forecasting that full-year shipments willfall 25% year-on-year before picking up on the back of a new designin 2017.

A NYT piece contained an interesting snippet about Fitbit: the company delayed its new product launchby six months back in 2011 because of the launch of the iPhone 4s.

At the time, the new iPhone added a capability to synchronize with wireless accessoriesusing the standard called Bluetooth. Fitbit trackers back then lacked Bluetooth connectivity,but [Fitbit CEO James Park] wanted them to be able to synchronize data immediately withthe iPhone.

“It could enable a lot of possibilities in terms of real-time feedback,” he said.

So Mr. Park gathered a few top employees into a conference room. They decided to re-engineer the Fitbit products to support the new feature. The decision set product releasesback about six months, but the revised devices became best sellers.

Park says that Fitbit will expand the functionality of their products – possibly to include mobilepayment – while stopping short of the range of features offered by smartwatches. The Apple Watch,meantime, appears to have more designer bands on the way, with Coach bands expected to launchnext month from $150.